Probability of Exceedance Analysis

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All measurement systems contain error, including measurements of corrosion pit sizes made by ILI tools.  Such measurements can be evaluated statistically using expected or field-quantified ILI tool error in order to determine the probability that a flaw of any indicated size could exceed a size of concern or requiring repair.  We refer to such an evaluation as ‘Probability of Exceedance” or POE.

Uses for a POE analysis include:

  • Determining how many digs must be performed to reduce probability of failure below a threshold;
  • Establishing flaw-size response criteria based on probability of failure.
  • Projecting how probability of failure increases over time at a given corrosion rate;
  • Determining how many repair digs must be performed to maintain risk at or below a threshold;
  • Evaluating whether a pipeline segment should be repaired on an anomaly-by-anomaly basis, be rehabbed, or be replaced.

With over 20 years of experience, Kiefner has the expertise to support your In-line Inspection qualification needs.